Measuring Sara Duterte ‘influence’: 9 of 11 bets set to prosecute her won

ELECTIONS composite image from Inquirer file/stock photos

MANILA, Philippines—Vice President Sara Duterte went all-out against some candidates who pushed for her impeachment at the House of Representatives on Feb. 5, especially some of those who have been designated as prosecutors in the trial.

However, “Duterte’s influence is not that strong in many areas,” said Maria Ela Atienza, a professor of political science at the University of the Philippines Diliman, who pointed out that the attacks made by the Vice President had little or no impact.

This, as nine of the 11 prosecutors in the trial managed to win in the election even when Duterte “did her best and went all-out to campaign against these legislators […] to the point that she used very personal and even malicious attacks.”

READ: House may lose 2 prosecutors in Sara Duterte impeachment trial

Last month, she threw an invective against reelectionist Manila Rep. Joel Chua. She told his opponent to shove an apple down his throat until Chua, who led the committee that investigated Duterte’s alleged misuse of confidential funds, is dead.

READ: Sara Duterte vents anger at Rep. Chua during rally in Manila

Batangas Rep. Jerville Luistro, who won reelection, was attacked by the Vice President, too, who alleged that the lawmaker has not yet paid a legal obligation worth P8 million to her husband, lawyer Manases Carpio.

GRAPHIC: Ed Lustan/INQUIRER.net

Chua and Luistro, however, succeeded against Apple Nieto and Raneo Abu, who were both backed by Duterte. Chua has 54,553 votes against Nieto’s 50,968 votes, while Luistro, who was already proclaimed, received 105,224 votes compared to Abu’s 65,690 votes.

RELATED STORY: Rep. Luistro on Sara Duterte impeachment: Prosecutors ‘co-equal’

As Atienza pointed out to INQUIRER.net, “if Duterte was very influential or her family name is still the most influential in the country, most of the candidates she endorsed would have won.”

Based on partial and unofficial election results, only three of PDP-Laban’s “DuterTEN” will have a seat in the Senate—reelectionists Sen. Bong Go and Sen. Bato dela Rosa, as well as Sagip Rep. Rodante Marcoleta.

READ: VP vows ‘powerful opposition’ with PDP’s only 3 apparent Senate winners

Las Piñas Rep. Camille Villar and reelectionist Sen. Imee Marcos, who were both backed by the Vice President, may win, however, considering that they are at 10th and 12th of the list as of 5:25 pm on Wednesday, May 14. Villar, however, also got the support of the administration.

RELATED STORY: Marcos talks unity with only 6 Alyansa Senate bets poised to win

But in local elections, the Duterte factor, which was credited for the overwhelming successes of some candidates in 2019, and even in 2022, did not work, like in Bohol, where all of the candidates she endorsed lost.

Even in Bukidnon, Dan Dangallo, who ran for a congressional seat with Duterte’s backing, did not win.

Gabay, a partylist group, which consistently linked itself to Duterte, and even former President Rodrigo Duterte, who is now in detention for alleged crimes against humanity, will likely not win, as well, after receiving only 51,475 votes.

Endorsements succeed, fail

Based on a 2016 study by Dave de Guzman of the University of the Philippine Diliman’s Virata School of Business, an endorser’s parasocial interaction and relationships (PSIR) may be related in predicting voting preferences.

PSIR is a one-sided, or imagined connection with a certain celebrity that an individual feels is reciprocal, something that happens because of the development of a sense of familiarity through their media presence, leading them to believe in a real relationship.

While the study highlighted endorsements made by certain personalities, especially those often seen on TV and in movies, it pointed out that in general, an endorser’s PSIR contributes to voting preferences of the public.

This, as based on results of the “Celebrities’ Parasocial Interaction and Relationships: Predictor of Voting Preference towards Endorsed Political Candidates,” strong agreement to the endorser’s PSIR “may lead voters to 1.089 times more likely to vote” for the endorsee.

However, when talking about “pairs” individually, such as Manny Pacquiao and Manny Villar in the 2010 presidential elections, the endorser’s PSIR was not significant enough to impact voter preference.

The study stressed that for PSIR to develop and for it to elicit enough connection and then convert such relational attitude to behavior, the endorser, who is a celebrity or a certain media personality in the study, should appear continuously in the consciousness of the public.

For instance, while endorsements made by Kris Aquino for her brother Benigno Aquino III and Sarah Geronimo for Loren Legarda worked, the backing thrown by Sharon Cuneta to Aquino and Pacquiao to Villar “did not count at all in the voting decisions among individuals.”

Local dynamics

But Atienza made it clear that there are local dynamics, and even other factors, that helped in getting candidates who have backed Duterte’s impeachment reelected. There are other reasons, too, behind the loss of some who were endorsed by, or linked to Duterte.

She explained that for some voters who consider the impeachment process and holding public officials to account as important election issues, together with more basic local issues, the win of the prosecutors is a signal that Duterte’s impeachment is well-backed.

“However, we cannot deny that there are voters who consider local links, personalities, name recall, performance, issues championed and/or patronage as considerations for voting for members of the House of Representatives,” she said.

Out of the 11 prosecutors, only General Santos City Rep. Loreto Acharon and Ako Bicol Rep. Raul Angelo Bongalon lost. Bongalon lost to Krisel Lagman, who received 128,290 votes compared to the former’s 107,206.

Lagman, who is the incumbent mayor of Tabaco City in Albay, is the daughter of the late lawmaker Edcel Lagman, who died on Jan. 30.

Based on a study conducted overseas, there are several key factors that consistently emerge as “influential” in shaping voting decisions and can be broadly categorized in individual-level, socio-cultural, and political determinants.

It pointed out that political factors play a pivotal role in shaping voting decisions. Voters take into account various political factors such as party identification, candidate characteristics, policy positions, campaign strategies, and economic conditions when determining their votes.

“These factors can significantly influence voter behavior and ultimately impact election outcomes,” the study “Factors Influencing Voting Decision: A Comprehensive Literature Review” stated.

It explained that when making a decision on who to vote for, people often assess various personal attributes, qualifications, and characteristics of candidates. Voters consider, too, the policy positions and stances of candidates when determining their support in elections./tsb

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